John Nissen: Talk Bullet Points for Astrobiology Conf, May 2022

John Nissen’s Talk Bullet Points for AbSciCon 2022 

2022-05-09 (version 1)

Introduction to my talk:

• I don’t expect you to believe my thesis, because it predicts that the search for extra-terrestrial life will be fruitless!
• However my thesis raises some extraordinary conjectures about our own existence as intelligent, talking hominids; so you might want to listen. 
• We exist, therefore nothing can be ruled out for the conditions of our existence, however unlikely or extraordinary.

Two fundamental assumptions:

• The universe is likely to be infinite.
• Quantum fluke – anything can happen through quantum uncertainty of position – nothing can be ruled out because it is too improbable.

Degrees of unlikelihood:

• For explanatory purposes consider flukes on a Richter scale from degrees 1 to 4.
• The lowest degree would be ~ 1 in 10.  The next degree would be ~ 1 in 10^10, i.e. one in ten billion.  This might be the likelihood of a tossed coin landing on its edge, perfectly balanced.  Degree 3 would be ~ 1 in 10^10^10, like the tossed coin landing on its edge billions of times in succession.  It is unimaginably rare, yet allowed by the laws of Newtonian physics – an “extreme physical fluke”. 
• Degree 4 for the “quantum fluke” is far less likely still, as it relies on quantum uncertainty of position.  For example a DNA helix could arise spontaneously out of a soup containing its constituent amines.
• The probability of intelligent life occurring within a given volume of universe is the product of the probabilities of all the flukes (as in the Drake equation).  This product is of degree 4.
• The quantum flukes (degree 4) dominate in the product; therefore flukes of lesser degree may appear optimised to maximise the chances of the both the quantum flukes taking place and results of the quantum flukes surviving.

Ramifications for the maintenance of life

• In an infinite universe with quantum effects, every conceivable event will happen an infinite number of times and every conceivable situation will exist in an infinite number of places, these events and situations being scattered throughout the infinite universe.
• An extreme physical fluke is observed for the arrival of the solar system and the Earth-Moon system in a stable configuration lasting millions if not billions of years without destabilising resonances.
• The solar system and Earth-Moon system supporting intelligent life will be typical of such systems scattered sparsely throughout the infinite universe – therefore the systems will appear optimised.

Ramifications for the origin of life

• A lot can be explained by Darwinian evolution, but the original life had to include an evolution capability as well as self-replication and obtaining an energy source.
• A quantum fluke is required to spontaneously create a complex structure of atoms and molecules out of a random soup of atoms and molecules, as must have happened for the origin of life.
• An extreme physical fluke is required to gather together the necessary atoms and molecules in optimum positions for the quantum fluke of original life to happen spontaneously.
• This physical fluke could have occurred during a period of heavy bombardment, when material was being moved around in a chaotic fashion and there was plenty of energy to produce chemical compounds. 
• An extreme physical fluke would be required for the establishment and subsequent maintenance of a suitable immediate environment for the original life to grow, reproduce and evolve. 
• This original environment would need to last for millions of years to allow the original life to evolve and adapt to the more widespread environment which would exist subsequent to the bombardment, e.g. in the ocean.

Ramifications for the origin of language and future of our civilisation

• The Earth-Moon system is highly tuned to produce Milankovitch signals.
• This suggests the optimisation to increase both the chance of some flukish event and the chance of its result surviving.
• Noam Chomsky has argued that a change spontaneously occurred in an individual Homo sapiens to produce a hard-wired language acquisition capability.
• Such a change demands a quantum fluke.
• Language allowed Homo sapiens to out-compete other hominids and form stronger social structures.
• The Milankovitch signals resulted in an anomalous period of stable temperature, climate and sea level, which enabled the growth and flourishing of agriculture, trade and modern civilisation.
• Greenhouse gases have mimicked a Milankovitch warming signal; intervention to cool the planet is almost certainly required since we can no longer rely on luck to keep us safe.